Rethinking future uncertainty in the shadow of COVID 19: Education, change, complexity and adaptability

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 threw the world into an unexpected turmoil;schools were closed, exams cancelled, and educational systems were forced to react to deep and unexpected changes. In educational policy, however, the idea that we should prepare for an unknown, uncontrollable and risky future has been widely accepted long before the outbreak. Building on insights from complexity theory and the study of dynamic systems, the article critically examines how the standard educational response to future unpredictability, which focuses on enhancing adaptability, fares in a time of crisis. It is argued that the emphasis on adaptability in response to a world that is increasingly becoming volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous is often uncritically embraced in educational policy. We suggest that furthering adaptability through education could be suited for tackling everyday uncertainty, yet is an ill-suited response to crisis situations because it hinders transformative change. The article also points to some additional difficulties with striving to further adaptability. Instead, it is argued that developing a vision might prove to be instrumental in guiding an adequate educational response. It is acknowledged that relying on a vision might raise some difficulties, but it is maintained that these can be, at least partially, avoided.

Suggesting Assess Queries for Interactive Analysis of Multidimensional Data

Assessment is the process of comparing the actual to the expected behavior of a business phenomenon and judging the outcome of the comparison. The ${{\sf assess}}$assess querying operator has been recently proposed to support assessment based on the results of a query on a data cube. This operator requires (i) the specification of an OLAP query to determine a target cube;(ii) the specification of a reference cube of comparison (benchmark), which represents the expected performance;(iii) the specification of how to perform the comparison, and (iv) a labeling function that classifies the result of this comparison. Despite the adoption of a SQL-like syntax that hides the complexity of the assessment process, writing a complete assess statement is not easy. In this paper we focus on making the user experience more comfortable by letting the system suggest suitable completions for partially-specified statements. To this end we propose two interaction modes: progressive refinement and auto-completion, both starting from an assess statement partially declared by the user. These two modes are evaluated both in terms of scalability and user experience, with the support of two experiments made with real users.

The complex evolution of information quality improvement in competitive market

Information is important market resource. High-quality information is beneficial to increase enterprise's reputation and reduce consumer's verification cost. This paper constructs a two-layer dynamic model, in which enterprises simultaneously conduct price and information game. The goal of profit maximization integrates two types of games into one system. The complex evolution of the two-layer system are studied by equilibrium analysis, stability analysis, bifurcation diagram, entropy and Lyapunov exponent. It is found that improving the information quality through regulations will increase involution and reduce stability of the market. Then, the block chain technology is introduced into the model for improving information quality of the market. It is found that increasing enterprises' willingness to adopt block chain can improve the information quality quickly and effectively, and that is verified by entropy value. Therefore, the application and promotion of new technologies are more effective than exogenous regulations for improving information quality in market.

Understanding superintendents' approaches to the implementation of district systems in the context of a crisis

The COVID-19 pandemic presented a crisis that district superintendents and their leadership teams had not before experienced. In a matter of weeks, school systems needed to transition away from a traditional learning model, where teaching and learning occurred in a physical classroom, to a virtual learning environment. School districts were provided little time to strategically develop a model to transform their systems to continue to meet student learning goals. The districts were still expected to fully operate, while prioritizing the acquisition of resources that could provide the means for a deliberate shift to establish a virtual learning system. This qualitative study examined how superintendents aligned resources and implemented systematic change during the initial months of COVID-19. Findings show that the voices of the local community stakeholders played the most integral part in identifying the values that primarily influenced how the districts navigated the crisis. Choice was the most prevalent value and, as a result, stakeholders were provided learning offerings in myriad formats. Superintendents considered how their decisions would affect each stakeholder group, as well as every aspect of their organizational structure. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

Governing wickedness in megaprojects: discursive and institutional perspectives

Megaprojects are now as important as ever. As a response to the pandemic, the European Union has put forward the Next Generation EU policy, making available a 2021-2027 long-term budget of euro1.8 trillion to fund projects with ecological and digital applications in the field of telecommunication, transportation, and energy infrastructures. Similarly, in the United States a $1.9 trillion Covid relief plan is on the way. Also, China has planned to expedite the rollout of 102 infrastructure megaprojects earmarked for the 2021-25 development plan. Despite their importance to policy-makers, megaprojects are often met with criticism and opposition by citizens, and often go off the rails-either with regard to budget or time, or both. This introductory article presents the aim and scope of the themed issue. It positions the problem areas beyond technical issues and connects them to the social and institutional environment within which megaprojects are planned and implemented. Moreover, the article makes the case for conceptualizing megaprojects as wicked policy fields. In doing so, we specify the three defining elements of megaprojects, namely, complexity, uncertainty, and conflict. The article argues that megaproject development cannot be seen as a rational, straightforward process. It is often a non-linear, conflictual process shaped by the collective action of different stakeholder groups (e.g., project managers, policy-makers, and citizens). Driven by divergent interests, sociotechnical imaginaries, as well as behavioral and discursive logics, groups of actors construct and mobilize narratives to influence final decision-making while interacting with the institutional context.

Developing an agent-based model to minimize spreading of malicious information in dynamic social networks.

This research introduces a systematic and multidisciplinary agent-based model to interpret and simplify the dynamic actions of the users and communities in an evolutionary online (offline) social network. The organizational cybernetics approach is used to control/monitor the malicious information spread between communities. The stochastic one-median problem minimizes the agent response time and eliminates the information spread across the online (offline) environment. The performance of these methods was measured against a Twitter network related to an armed protest demonstration against the COVID-19 lockdown in Michigan state in May 2020. The proposed model demonstrated the dynamicity of the network, enhanced the agent level performance, minimized the malicious information spread, and measured the response to the second stochastic information spread in the network.

Investigating Ecotourism Opportunities Measurements in a Complex Adaptive System: A Systematic Literature Review

Identifying and quantifying ecotourism opportunities are critical processes in sustainable tourism planning, which is challenging, since ecotourism is a Complex Adaptive System (CAS). This study investigated Ecotourism Opportunities Measurements (EOMs) in the literature and mapped the research trends to provide practical implications for research in this area. A systematic quantitative literature review began with a scientometric analysis in CiteSpace to examine the existing knowledge and the state of the art in EOMs. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol was then applied to refine the initial search results, and snowballing was used to collect additional articles. The refined set was then thematically coded and quantitatively analyzed. Our findings show that existing studies on ecotourism opportunities predominantly focus on the impacts of ecotourism on the environment, stakeholders' contributions toward ecotourism development, sustainability, and responsible behavior of local communities in ecotourism promotion. In addition, five dimensions have been identified under which ecotourism opportunities can be measured, including nature, environmental education/protection, sustainability, socio-cultural benefits, and tourist satisfaction. Existing scales or indices assess potential destinations qualitatively rather than quantitatively. In contrast, an index-based approach might help to solve the challenges of evaluating ecotourism opportunities as a CAS, as well as to quantitatively assess potential destinations to support decision-making related to ecotourism promotion.

How to not revert to type: Complexity-informed learnings from the pandemic response for health system reform and universal access to integrated care.

This article is part of the Research Topic 'Health Systems Recovery in the Context of COVID-19 and Protracted Conflict'. Background: COVID-19 has highlighted existing health inequalities and health system deficiencies both in Ireland and internationally; however, understanding of the critical opportunities for health system change that have arisen during the pandemic is still emerging and largely descriptive. This research is situated in the Irish health reform context of Sláintecare, the reform programme which aims to deliver universal healthcare by strengthening public health, primary and community healthcare functions as well as tackling system and societal health inequities. Aims and objectives: This study set out to advance understanding of how and to what extent COVID-19 has highlighted opportunities for change that enabled better access to universal, integrated care in Ireland, with a view to informing universal health system reform and implementation. Methods: The study, which is qualitative, was underpinned by a co-production approach with Irish health system leadership. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with sixteen health system professionals (including managers and frontline workers) from a range of responses to explore their experiences and interpretations of social processes of change that enabled (or hindered) better access to universal integrated care during the pandemic. A complexity-informed approach was mobilized to theorize the processes that impacted on access to universal, integrated care in Ireland in the COVID-19 context. Findings: A range of circumstances, strategies and mechanisms that created favorable system conditions in which new integrated care trajectories emerged during the crisis. Three key learnings from the pandemic response are presented: (1) nurturing whole-system thinking through a clear, common goal and shared information base; (2) harnessing, sharing and supporting innovation; and (3) prioritizing trust and relationship-building in a social, human-centered health system. Policy and practice implications for health reform are discussed.

Digital transformation of professional healthcare practices: fitness seeking across a rugged value landscape

Digital transformation (DT) is typically described as a strategic, top-down initiative where new digital technologies fundamentally disrupt an organisation's structure, procedures, and processes to enhance its value proposition. We propose a middle-range theory which highlights that DT of professional practices in healthcare follows a different path. To build this theory, we transpose the metaphor of a "fitness landscape” from evolutionary biology to a professional healthcare context to build an intermediate conceptualisation, which is then refined through an empirical study. Our theory highlights that external events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, changing patient behaviours or the availability of new digital resources, transform the "value landscape” upon which healthcare professionals create and deliver healthcare services to patients. Empowered by their professional autonomy and driven by their service orientation, healthcare professionals search for new paths and peaks for value creation and delivery across a rugged landscape. As digital resources are leveraged, new value propositions in practice emerge, and professional healthcare practices are digitally transformed. © The Operational Research Society 2023.

A complexity perspective for antecedents of support for tourism development

Purpose>In this study, the effects of negative tourism impacts, length of residency and nativity on support for tourism development were examined.Design/methodology/approach>Because understanding the attitudes of local people toward tourism support is complex, this study employed both symmetric (PLS-SEM) and asymmetric (fsQCA) approaches from a holistic perspective. A total of 336 individuals from Cappadocia, one of Turkey's most prominent tourist destinations, were surveyed.Findings>According to the symmetric method results, respondents' negative perceptions of tourism negatively affect attitudes toward tourism support. Native-born status acts as a moderating variable in the relationship between attitudes toward tourism support and the negative economic impacts of tourism. On the other hand, this study shows that the complex interactions of nativity and the negative impacts of tourism directly affect local people's attitudes toward tourism support.Practical implications>This study revealed that practitioners should adopt a comprehensive perspective to understand the attitudes of local people toward tourism support.Originality/value>This study, in addition to the findings obtained via the symmetric method, reveals the complex interaction of the negative impacts of tourism, thus providing a roadmap to improve local people's attitudes toward tourism support by using asymmetric modeling.

What Quality Control Mechanisms do We Need for High-Quality Crowd Work?

Crowd sourcing and human computation has slowly become a mainstay for many application areas that seek to leverage the crowd in the development of high quality datasets, annotations, and problem solving beyond the reach of current AI solutions. One of the major challenges to the domain is ensuring high-quality and diligent work. In response, the literature has seen a large number of quality control mechanisms each voicing (sometimes domain-specific) benefits and advantages when deployed in largescale human computation projects. This creates a complex design space for practitioners: it is not always clear which mechanism(s) to use for maximal quality control. In this article, we argue that this decision is perhaps overinflated and that provided there is "some kind" of quality control that this obviously known to crowd workers this is sufficient for "high-quality" solutions. To evidence this, and provide a basis for discussion, we undertake two experiments where we explore the relationship between task design, task complexity, quality control and solution quality. We do this with tasks from natural language processing, and image recognition of varying complexity. We illustrate that minimal quality control is enough to repel constantly underperforming contributors and that this is constant across tasks of varying complexity and formats. Our key takeaway: quality control is necessary, but seemingly not how it is implemented.

Crisis and society: developing the theory of crisis in the context of COVID-19

The theory of crisis and society is advanced by developing a complex systems analysis and is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic. Five issues are identified, discussed and resolved: the definition of crisis;whether a crisis is treated as real or as a socially constructed narrative, or both;the underlying concept and theory of society and its alternative forms;and the different kinds of change in relationship between crisis and society (recuperation, intensification, transformation and catastrophe). This complex systems approach to crisis is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic, analysing the cascade of the crisis through institutional domains and the consequent changes to multiple regimes of inequality. © 2022, Bristol University Press. All rights reserved.

Blockchain Security Using Merkle Hash Zero Correlation Distinguisher for the IoT in Smart Cities

Internet of Things (IoT) data is one of the most important assets in business models for offering various ubiquitous and brilliant services. The IoT is provided with the advantage of susceptibility that cybercriminals and other malicious users. Even though smart cities are intended to extend productivity and efficiency, residents and authorities face risks when they avoid cybersecurity. The conventional blockchain methods were introduced to ensure the secure management and examination of the smart city big data. But, the blockchains are found to have computationally high costs, and failed to improve the security, not adequate resource-constrained IoT devices have been designated for smart cities. In order to address these issues, the proposed novel blockchain model called blockchain secured Merkle hash zero correlation distinguisher (BSMH-ZCD) is suitable for IoT devices within the cloud infrastructure. The objective of the BSMH-ZCD method is to enhance security and reduce the run time and computational overhead. Initially, the Merkle hash tree is used to create the hash value with every transaction. Next, the zero correlation distinguisher is applied to perform the data encryption and decryption operation for the ARX block for obtaining proficient secure data access in the IoT devices. Experimental assessment of the proposed BSMH-ZCD method and existing methods are carried out by using the taxi driver data set and Novel Corona Virus 2019 data set with different factors, such as running time, computational complexity, and security with respect to a number of blocks and executions. By using the taxi driver data set, the experimental results reveal that the BSMH-ZCD method performs better with a 19% improvement in security, 20% reduction of computational complexity, and 29% faster running time for IoT compared to existing works.

Proposal of guidelines to assist managers to face pressing challenges confronting Latin American universities: a complexity theory perspective.

The Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated pre-existing problems in Latin America and posed unprecedented challenges for Latin American universities (LAU). These challenges can be characterised as complex problems that cannot be understood through reductionist approaches. This paper aims (i) to provide a complex system perspective of the challenges confronting LAUs and (ii) to propose guidelines for managers of LAUs to address them in practice. A multidisciplinary group was formed and conducted an iterative process of research, brainstorming and debate of potential solutions to the following problems considered particularly important by their universities: mental health issues in the university environment, student learning gaps, brain drain, and anti-science movements. Complexity theory and E/HF concepts are integrated to demonstrate that understanding what LAUs are experiencing in a fragmented manner is impossible, and that the interactions between the challenges should be at the centre of the managers' actions plans. Practitioner summary: Managers of LAUs can benefit from the guidelines proposed to understand the pressing challenges confronting universities and develop systemic approaches to address them.

Skills-approximate occupations: using networks to guide jobs retraining.

An issue often confronting economic development agencies is how to minimize unemployment due to disruptions like technological change, trade wars, recessions, or other economic shocks. Decision makers are left to craft policies that can absorb surplus labor with as little pain to workers as possible. The questions they face include how to re-employ displaced workers and how to fill labor shortages. To address such questions, we quantify the proximity of any two occupations based on the skills inherent in each. Taking labor skills as nodes, we model US labor as a weighted network of interdependent skills, deriving link values from geographical patterns of skill co-occurrence. We use this network to locate occupations, measure their proximity to each other, and identify which missing skills may inhibit workers from easily transitioning from one occupation to another. Thus, given that an occupation is a bundle of skills, we use our skills network to help policy makers identify which other occupations are most proximate a worker's current occupation. Finally, we apply our method to assess various worker retraining pathways for metropolitan Washington, DC, USA, whose economy was simultaneously disrupted by both the COVID-19 pandemic and the arrival of a second headquarters for Amazon. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41109-022-00487-7.

Suggesting assess queries for interactive analysis of multidimensional data

Assessment is the process of comparing the actual to the expected behavior of a business phenomenon and judging the outcome of the comparison. The assess querying operator has been recently proposed to support assessment based on the results of a query on a data cube. This operator requires (i) the specification of an OLAP query to determine a target cube;(ii) the specification of a reference cube of comparison (benchmark), which represents the expected performance;(iii) the specification of how to perform the comparison, and (iv) a labeling function that classifies the result of this comparison. Despite the adoption of a SQL-like syntax that hides the complexity of the assessment process, writing a complete assess statement is not easy. In this paper we focus on making the user experience more comfortable by letting the system suggest suitable completions for partially-specified statements. To this end we propose two interaction modes: progressive refinement and auto-completion, both starting from an assess statement partially declared by the user. These two modes are evaluated both in terms of scalability and user experience, with the support of two experiments made with real users. IEEE

Teacher educators’ simplex system in navigating the process of responding to disruptive education – a case from Qatar

The study explored teacher educators’ experiences in navigating the process of responding to disruptive education due to the COVID 19 pandemic. From a complexity theory lens, the concept of simplex system was used to examine three teacher educators’ narratives on their teaching experiences prior to, during and post pandemic, as they responded to institutional top-down policy mandating the emergency shift from face-to-face to full-scale synchronised online teaching. Findings of the study suggested that the teacher educators all struggled within the intrapersonal space, consisting of beliefs, motivation, efficacy and emotions during the emergent transition to full-scale online teaching, while they also experienced change of interpersonal relationships with students and colleagues. The study also revealed variations in their individual coping strategies for self-organisation in response to the emergent policy change, utilising their individual sources and prior experiences. The study called for the need to better understand teacher educators’ simplex system at both the individual level and institutional level. Further, it was highly recommended that teacher educators become actively involved in the policy making process and communications;in order to enhance their understanding of complex situations and support their agentic actions in accomplishing their goals.

Guest editorial: Complexity as a model for social innovation and social entrepreneurship: is there order in the chaos?

In grappling with this question, the interrelated social innovation and social entrepreneurship literatures shifted focus from localised problems to “systemic and structural issues” (Nicholls et al., 2015), from individual “heroic” entrepreneurs to self-organising actors within ecosystems (Moore and Westley, 2011) and from a deterministic theory of change approach to a dynamic and non-linear process of scaling, spreading and impact (Corner and Ho, 2010). Research traditions which have developed from von Bertalanffy’s General Systems Theory, Forrester’s System Dynamics, Cybernetics and the Santa Fe Institute’s Complex Adaptive Systems approach focus primarily on modelling, predicting and ultimately influencing the behaviour of complex systems. The social innovation field’s focus, particularly in a policy-related context, has moved from narrower and more procedural goals towards deeply entrenched systemic problems from climate change to social inequity – typified by the innovation-driving UN Sustainable Development Goals (Sachs et al., 2019). The focal points of many social innovation efforts – societal outcomes like obesity, educational attainment or criminal recidivism – are created by a constellation of factors from personal decision-making and individual psychology to broader economic, technological or cultural institutions (Finegood et al., 2010).

"Can Someone Please Say Something?": Avoiding Chaos in a Virtual Environment

Yet the complexities of schedules, digital platforms, and expectations took a heavy toll with one student dropping out and another deciding to go to law school after finishing their education degree. The primary research questions were: "In what ways do teacher candidates who complete aspects of their field experience in a virtual environment approach the edge of chaos?" and "In what ways do mentors and supervisors affect the virtual field experience of those same teacher candidates?" Drawing on research in online mentoring and relationship-building (Redmond, 2015), as well as chaos and complexity theory (Cochran-Smith et al., 2014), the aim of this study was to provide insights into supporting teacher candidates in virtual field experiences and to offer guidelines for future supervisors and mentors who may have mentees in a virtual environment. Chaos and Complexity: A Conceptual Framework Consideration of field experiences in these virtual and hybrid spaces where the boundaries defining a Zone for Proximal Development (Vygotsky, 1978) are increasingly less discernible calls for a conceptual framework for thinking about the extent to which multiple complex factors push student teachers and university supervisors to the "edge of chaos." (2014) submitted complexity theory as ideal for studying the complexities of teacher preparation because acknowledging an orbit of interconnected systems allows researchers to "take a complex view, resist simplification, and account more fully for teacher education's contexts and processes as well as its impact on teacher candidates' and school students' learning" (p. 105).

Re-considering the nature of work in complex adaptive organisations – fluid work as a driver of learning through work

PurposeThis paper aims to draw on data from a study of professionals’ experiences of work and learning framed by a complex adaptive systems approach to examine the nexus of work and learning in complex adaptive organisations.Design/methodology/approachThe study used an adapted phenomenographic approach and the complex adaptive systems conceptual framework (CAOCF) to analyse data from semi-structured interviews with fourteen professionals from a variety of organisations and industry sectors within Sydney, Australia.FindingsThe findings highlight that work in complex adaptive organisations is best described as fluid work. Further, the findings suggest that fluid work influences professionals towards flexible learning approaches that take place in the flow of work.Originality/valueThis paper empirically demonstrates the nexus of work and learning as experienced by professionals in their day-to-day work, as well as the ways in which fluid work influences flexible and adaptable learning through participation in work.